Thoughts on Iowa

I have a lot of things I’d like to toss out there for you to chew on regarding last nights Iowa Caucuses (for starters, wouldn’t Caucasi be a cooler way to pluralize?) I’m on the clock and want to get this out to the world before my thoughts are penned by a hundred other bloggers and writers since some will undoubtedly have pretty much the exact thoughts, so forgive me for just throwing this all out there.

Invincible, my ass.
First, anyone surprised that Clinton lost has really not been paying attention. The only people that really think she was invincible are the media pundits, their audience of rubes and those that hoped she was invincible, like the Republicans. Yes, you read that correctly. Clinton getting the nomination would be the greatest thing to happen for the Republicans in years. She is GOTV gold for them. There are people that may have never voted in an election in their entire life, people that have never donated to a political cause or even considered doing so, that will do both JUST to stop Hillary Clinton. The Republicans wouldn’t know what to do with all the Anti-Clinton volunteers that would pour in to stop her. Don’t believe me? Go take a look at some of the Facebook groups that have been popping up this year, for example. I have friends that have never cared or talked about politics in all the time I’ve known them that are joining “1,000,000 Strong Against Hillary” or “Stop Hillary” groups. Just search for Hillary Clinton, you’ll find them. Voters like this have no preference who their candidate is, but they just don’t want her to win for whatever reason, the gender or dynasty issues or whatever. (Yeah, yeah, there are voters like this on both sides, as we all know there were people that didn’t care for Kerry but voted for him just to not vote for Bush, but Clinton will bring that to a new level).

Huckabee Schmuckabee?
Second, I don’t mean to gloat, but I’m gonna bring it up to point out the obviousness that so many people apparently missed, but I predicted Huckabee would win Iowa and possibly the nomination as far back as January 27 of last year. I may have said it before then, but that is the earliest that I have it documented. It was in an email to a friend, which is archived in my Gmail.

Here’s why I knew this would happen and his winning didn’t surprise me: The apparent front-runners — Guiliani, McCain and Romney — are all considered by the Religious Right to not be “real Conservatives,” so Huckabee, a Southern Baptist preacher who doesn’t believe in evolution, already had an advantage. It was so obvious that Guiliani had no chance that he didn’t even run a campaign in Iowa, opting to spend his time and money on New Hampshire and Florida instead. Romney on the other hand did spend a LOT of money and energy in Iowa, but he’s proving himself to be a huge idiot and Iowans (I’ve been told) are smarter and pay more attention to politics than your average American, so they were understandably turned off by him. That’s at least how it looks to me. He still got a nice chunk of the vote, but at what cost? $15 to $20 Million or something like that? I’m not sure of the exact amount, but it was a LOT more than Huckabee spent and he got blown away. Geez, he’s a great CEO. He’ll either drop out in the next two weeks or go ahead and waste more of his money, but he’s not going to be our next President. Sorry, Mitt, but the Patriots play in the Super Bowl.

Looking Forward for the Republicans
Looking forward, I think Huckabee will continue to gain ground, but I don’t know what to think about his chances in New Hampshire. Really, I also wouldn’t be surprised to see him implode in the near future. I’m just torn. On one hand, I think he’s the only candidate that the Religious Right will really get behind and that could be the deciding factor, as the Republicans have to have their support in order to win, but on the other hand he’s Mike Freakin’ Huckabee, so it’s just a matter of time before this whole things falls apart. (Seriously, folks, yall don’t know what a mess and a fool this guy is).

Looking Forward for the Democrats
For the Dems, Obama’s win was huge, but I still think Edwards has a shot. Obama winning Iowa was not surprising and might be later be seen as the tipping point that pushes him into the nomination, but I really think Edwards is The One. I might just be being optimistic and hopeful, but I think he is unbeatable head to head with any of the Republicans. Had he ended up in third, even if just by the slim margin that Clinton was third, it wouldn’t look good for him and I’d be less optimistic for his chances, but besting Clinton was enough to keep him in the race and give him a boost of media coverage and likely, a surge of additional donations.

The (Overly) Simplified Argument for Edwards
Here’s my simplified argument for Edwards: Consider that Gore and Kerry both nearly won without winning a southern state (though we all know Gore actually won Florida). Obama or Clinton or any other candidate the Democrats run will get the same states that Kerry or Gore won. That is just the result of our polarized state. But throw Edwards, a charming, handsome, Southerner and I hate to say it, White Male, into the nomination and he’ll make the South once again competitive. Carry the states that would go blue no matter what and pick up one or two Southern Red states and the Dems win the White House. It is that easy.

With Obama and Clinton, again, I hate to have to say this, but it is just the truth, there are voters that will never vote for a woman or a non-white person. And it could be argued, as I mentioned above, that there are some Americans that will vote in their very first election just to oppose either of those candidates. Edwards wouldn’t bring those people to the polls and therefore neutralizes those votes and in some instances will even win over some Republicans. I know, for example, that some of my Republican friends from Arkansas would vote for Edwards just because he’s a Southerner. (Put him up against Huck and that may not be the case, but Edwards vs. Romney or Guiliani would be a landslide for the Dems.)

Now, it should also be noted that Obama or Clinton could both win the whole thing without having to carry a southern state or bring a bunch of Republicans to their side, but those races will be a lot closer than I think it would be with Edwards on the ticket.

More Predictions
Normally, I don’t like making these public, as any kind of prediction could come back to bite you and make you look like a fool if you end up being wrong, but just for fun, here are some of my hopes/predictions for who the candidates would pick as their Vice Presidents.

If Edwards gets it:

Edwards/Obama = unbeatable. VP is the spot a lot of people think Obama should be in anyway. For Edwards this would let him reap the benefits of the massive amount of supporters that Obama has organized. And for Obama, this would allow him to have 8 years in the White House which would make his 2016 bid for the Presidency that much stronger.

Edwards/Biden is also something to consider. He Biden* had a poor showing in Iowa and has now dropped out of the race, but I think he is easily the most intelligent candidate with regards to Foreign Policy (see his Iraq plan) and he’s excellent on his feet and would dominate in the debates.

Edwards/Sebelius is also a possibility. She is already on the short list of possible VP candidates and choosing her would cater to the voters that were hoping Clinton would be on the ticket for gender-reasons. Plus, she’s just a great politician and would help Edwards in many ways.

If Obama gets it:

If Obama keeps this momentum out of Iowa and gets the nomination, look for him to choose someone with a great deal of experience, possibly Richardson or maybe even Republican Chuck Hagel (it’s all about “Change” for Obama, afterall and a bi-partisan ticket would be unbeatable).

If Clinton gets it:

If Clinton comes from the Iowa loss and manages to get the nomination, I have no clue who she would pick. It won’t be Obama or Edwards, that is for sure. Those bridges are burned. Richardson is still an appealing VP, so maybe him.

For the Republicans, I have no clue. But if Huckabee isn’t the main nominee, which I don’t really think he will be, afterall, he’ll be a VP since he’ll help counter-balance McCain, Guiliani or Romney’s lack of support from the Religious Right.

Final Thoughts:
Here are some articles I’d recommend for some additional thoughts on all this.
A Fascinating Dynamic in New Hampshire
After Iowa, Huckabee Softens His Christian Image
They Heart Huckabee
Edwards: It Feels Like First!
GOP Race in Total Disarray
Cutting Through the Spin

*UPDATE: Edited to clarify my comment was referencing Biden, not Edwards.